Nigeria’s oil production reached a milestone of 1.69 million barrels per day (mbd) in November 2024, marking its highest level in 44 months. This increase, up from 1.53 mbd in October, is attributed to enhanced production efforts, including the addition of condensates,leadership reports.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that this achievement reinforces Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest oil producer, despite challenges like oil theft and infrastructural deficiencies that have long hindered output.
Key Highlights
- Production Trends: Nigeria’s oil production rebounded to levels not seen since April 2021, signaling progress in stabilizing the sector. This improvement is expected to bolster petrodollar inflows, easing fiscal pressures and strengthening the Nigerian economy amid ongoing reforms.
- 2024 Budget Projections: Nigeria’s 2024 budget anticipates oil revenues of ₦7.94 trillion, based on a production target of 1.78 mbd and an oil price of $78 per barrel.
- Challenges: Despite recent gains, the sector continues to grapple with oil theft, vandalism, and force majeure incidents at key export terminals. January 2024 production peaked at 1.64 mbd but fell to 1.54 mbd in February and 1.44 mbd in March before gradually recovering.
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Crude Oil and Condensate Insights
Crude oil production averaged 1.48 mbd in November 2024, while blended and unblended condensates contributed 46,483 bpd and 158,345 bpd, respectively.
- Blended Condensate: A mix of natural gas liquids.
- Unblended Condensate: Pure, unprocessed liquid separated from raw natural gas.
Recent Improvements
Nigeria’s recent production surge to 1.7 mbd, including condensates, is attributed to intensified security measures targeting pipeline theft and sabotage. President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in the oil sector in June, directing security forces to combat theft and vandalism in the Niger Delta.
“These measures have improved the uptime of the Trans Niger Pipeline in the eastern Niger Delta, enabling operators to consistently produce into this major trunkline,” noted Olu Verheijen, Special Adviser on Energy to the President, during a November industry event. Verheijen also highlighted fiscal reforms aimed at attracting new investments, unlocking approximately 1.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent in oil and gas resources.
Outlook
In November, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, led by Group Chief Executive Officer Mele Kyari, reported crude oil and gas production reaching 1.8 mbd, with aspirations to hit 2 mbd by year-end. Kyari praised efforts to recover and escalate production levels, aligning with mandates from the government and stakeholders.
Nigeria’s 2024 budget projections are now aligned with a target of 1.7 mbd and an oil price of $75 per barrel. These developments signal a potential revitalization of Nigeria’s oil sector, with ongoing reforms likely to attract international and domestic investment, addressing long-standing structural and security challenges.
